League Prediction 08/09

Well, it's finally time to write up my predictions for the Premier League season 2008/09. Using mainly the BBC Premier League Predictor (useful, that) I produced a final league table by entering in all the predicted results. To add to the realism of the results I of course added a few suprise results here and there and one or two shocks but possibilities. I of course expected Arsenal to triumph (this is an Arsenal blog) but in order to make it fair, Arsenal had a fair few draws and losses. Below are the final standings along with my prediction and a few other final stats I came up with.

Final Table:

1 Arsenal

2 Chelsea
3 Manchester United
4 Liverpool
5 Manchester City
6 Aston Villa
7 Blackburn Rovers
8 Portsmouth
9 Everton
10 Sunderland
11 Tottenham Hotspur
12 West Ham United
13 Newcastle United
14 Middlesbrough
15 Wigan Athletic
16 Bolton Wanderers
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Fulham
19 Hull City
20 Stoke City

Detail:

1 Arsenal

No suprises here perhaps, but when I was calculating the results, Arsenal for a while looked on course to finish second. According to my predictions, Arsenal will lead the league early with their easy schedule, but in November they'll give it up. Eventually, though, Arsenal will win it back, and presuming that injuries don't hit us hard, we'll be back atop the league by March or so after keeping close to the leaders. Our schedule will put us far enough ahead that we will only need a point from our matches against Chelsea and Man Utd in May to secure the title, albeit by only 3 points. But of course if injuries ravage us like they did at the end of last season, then we'll be looking at 2nd or 3rd.
2 Chelsea

Chelsea are going to be the main threats to our title. According to my results they'll lose their current lead but get it back just before December and then hold it, barring the odd week Man Utd top the table, until March. They will stay hot on our heels until May when the match at the Emirates between the two teams will prove decisive. Hopefully results stand this way. Chelsea look to be stronger than Man Utd this season and they've brought in some dangerous players, including Deco, a man who's been playing wonderfully for them thus far. He's like our Nasri: excellent right from the start this season.
3 Manchester United

Man Utd made almost no attempts to stregnthen their squad until deadline day when they brought in Berbatov. But I don't think that will be enough for them. United are clearly struggling without Ronaldo, much as they did at the start of last season without Rooney. If either of thise players falls out due to injury for any period of time this season, Man Utd will not retain the title. My prediction sees them hanging around with the front two all season and leading the league for a week here and there. I have them as finishing 4-6 points off the champions.

4 Liverpool

Liverpool are not going to be a threat this season. True, they have F. Torres, but they had him last season and didn 't do miraculous things. Their purchase of Keane doesn't seem to be helping tremendously either and they actually sold many of their good players over the summer, replacing them with players such as N'Gog, an unknown youth from France. I predict they'll struggle to keep pace with the "big three", as they will be, for most of the year. Near the end of the season a strong push from Man City will threaten their Champions League spot, but they'll just survive.
5 Manchester City

Mancheser City are not going to make the Champions League next year. Until January they'll just be hanging around 6th or 7th, but during the next transfer window it will all change. Their new billionaire-owners will probably buy them a whole new starting eleven and they will have multiple world-class players at the squad, all highly overpaid. This will allow them to have big four-type results for the rest of the season, but they'll still come up 3-5 points short of 4th place. I believe next year though they will replace Liverpool in the big four due to Liverpool's crushing debts and inevitable selling of players to cover the costs when their American owners bail out.

6 Aston Villa

Aston Villa are definitely going to make it into the UEFA Cup this season but will have to fight a late surge from Blackburn to do it. It is my prediction that they'll finish roughly level on points with the Lancashire side but will finish 6th on goal difference. Villa have a pretty good squad and normally I would predict them pushing Liverpool for 4th, but with the purchase of Man City by the Abu Dhabi group, all that is changed and they will have to settle for 6th.

7 Blackburn Rovers

As I said, Blackburn are going to be serious contenders for the UEFA Cup spots. As long as a big four club win the League Cup this season they'll probably make it in no matter what, but just in case they will be pushing hard for league qualification. My predictions showed that they will be mid-table for most of the first two-thirds of the season due to a hard early schedule, but they should be able to mount a surge by the end of the season and push Villa all the way for a UEFA Cup spot.

8 Portsmouth

Portsmouth will also be in the mix of teams fighting for UEFA Cup spots. In fact my prediction puts them just 1-3 points behind Blackburn & Aston Villa. They will probably be in 5th or 6th for most of the year, but a harsh late-season schedule will hurt them. Under Harry Rednapp Pompey will definitely be a force this season, and hopefully our own Armand Traore will shine for them whilst on loan and come back ready to fight for a place in the Arsenal first-team.

9 Everton

Everton were very good last year, looking very likely for a while to steal Liverpool's Champions League place. But over the summer the squad was somewhat depleted, with Everton really only bring in one major name: Louis Saha. But Saha is past his prime and Man Utd let him go happily. With less players, Everton have little depth, and only one major signing to speak of, the Mersyside club will have a hard time repeating last year's success.

10 Sunderland

Roy Keane has revolutionised Sunderland, and with the signings of many many players over the summer, they will finally crack the top-ten. Cisse, Diouf, Malbranque and others will certainly add to their stregnth, and defeating Tottenham the other week showed how much better they are this season. My prediction has them hanging around between 10th and 15th for most of the year before making a final push for 10th and succeeding.

11 Tottenham Hotspur

The Spurs (or Spuds, or a number of other unpleasant names, take your pick) may have decieved some pundits in the summer with their high-profile signings, but a bad start to the season has shown everyone just what to expect from our next-door neighbours this season. As usual their attack will score them quite a few goals this season, but their horrible defense (unstregthened in the summer) will lead to their downfall when they tally up one of the worst goals-conceded records in the league. Too bad for them, I suppose all that their fans will be clinging to this season will be their 5-1 victory mugs and t-shirts they bought last season. They'll probably still be singing about it in five years or so like it's something to be proud of to beat our reserves.

12 West Ham United

West Ham will be the suprise of the start of the season as they have an extremely easy schedule until November. Assuming a new manager is brought in they will actually be in the top four until November. After that, though, they will falter and begin to have problems. It will be a drop all the way to mid-table that will be their fate this season. Last season it was sometimes fun to watch them just to see Freddie Ljungberg playing for them. But now with the Swede gone West Ham are boring again and I won't be suprised at all by a 12th place finish.

13 Newcastle United

Kevin Keegan is gone and owner Mike Ashley was caught on TV illegally drinking gallons of beer at the Emirates. Newcastle just don't know how to run a club, and my prediction is that they will remail 10th-15th all season long. They just are too unstable to make a serious challenge for anything anymore and when a club keeps the services of a player like Joey Barton you know they don't know a thing about team management. The decline of Newcastle Utd towards relegation status will only continue until some stability is established.

14 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough will be mid-table all season long. Even with the excellence of Alfonso Alves, who I believe will be gone in January, things at the Riverside just are not good enough. The manager is excellent, but squad looks weak, and the only good player they brought in over the summer was Justin Hoyte. I love Hoyte as a person because of his commitment to Arsenal over the years, but it does say something that he's first-choice at Middlesbrough when he was only second or third-choice here at Arsenal.

15 Wigan Athletic

Wigan benefit from having players like Emile Heskey, because only he and others like him are keeping Wigan up. Accordnig to my prediction, Wigan will be flirting with relegation all year and will only finish 2-5 points above the drop in what will be a close relegation battle. The squad is pretty weak and the ground they play at can at times be herrendous (e.g. February when we drew them 0-0). Only some good, steady management will allow Wigan to play consistantly this season and avoid the drop.

16 Bolton Wanderers

I really wish Bolton would be relegated, and my prediction has them just 1-4 points ahead of 18th this season, but they the simple fact is this won't be gone this year. All the teams in the bottom three are just plain worse than them and that alone is what will keep them up. Strangely enough my prediction has them surviving just because they will become masters of getting a draw. I only had them marked down for about 3 wins or so, but many, many draws will keep them alive for another year. May we hope that one of those draws isn't against us this season. They always give us trouble and they play pretty dirty. It was amazing they didnt get a single red card last season, but in their relegation battle this season that will likely not be the case.

17 West Bromwich Albion

West Brom will just survive this season, but my predictions actually have them around 15th for most of the year. A tough end-of-season schedule will condemn them to a relegation fight, but I believe they'll survive; barely. West Brom arguably played the most attractive lower-tier football of anyone last season, but this isn't the Championship. In the Premiership they've already found it harder to play like they were last season, and when a team cannot play the way they want to, they will always suffer; just look at us when our passing game breaks down.

18 Fulham

Fulham were miraculously saved by a whisker last season, but I don't believe it will happen again. They sold or loaned out most of their American players over the summer, and to be honest they were they only ones who looked particularly impressive last season. I'll admit though that if they can consistantly perform like they did against us when they beat us 1-0 a few weeks ago they'll survive. But they won't and we all know it. They just don't have the quality nessesary to maintain such fitness levels all season long.

19 Hull City

Hull were everyone's favourites to be the new Derby this season, and I include myself among that bunch. But a promising start to the season made me rethink their fortunes. They will still be relegated, but at least they won't finish last this season. According to my prediction though, they will concede the most goals in the league this season, shipping between 75-85 goals.

20 Stoke City

Stoke will ultimately finish last this season, but they will only be 1-2 points behind Hull City if it's any consolation. They have simply looked awful this season and there's nothing there for me to believe that's going to change. They are a team which belongs in the Championship, not the Premier League. Stoke fans will have about 30-35 goals to cheer about this season, but that will be it as they are relagated in late April.

Well that concludes the League Prediction. The top three are the only real question this season, with any one of Arsenal, Chelsea, or Man Utd winning it. Hopefully it'll be us, and we can banish the critics once and for all. If you agree, disagree, or just like to type things then please feel free to comment. Until next time,

Fab 4